The four weeks of war with Iran have now turned into a month.
So now we have started to count the war time with Iran in months.
Catastrophic miscalculation when it comes to Iran goes back all the way to the 1978–1979 Iranian Revolution*, argues Scott Anderson in his book published a few months ago.
*The 1978–1979 Iranian Revolution was a populist uprising that toppled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s absolute monarchy, ending 2,500 years of imperial rule and establishing an Islamic Republic.
Scott Anderson’s take of the current situation, during an interview with him on CNN today, were more or less as follows:
“(Members of) The Revolutionary Guard are not going to negotiate.
They have nowhere to go.
They are hated by the people.
Their backs are to the wall.
I feel there is a huge element of wishful thinking in this (by the Trump Administration):
‘Maybe if we talk to moderate people, maybe that empowers them somehow.’
I am not even convinced that they’re taking to many people at all.
Five days ago Trump was saying we’re very close to a deal, and then the Iranian foreign minister said ‘We’re not talking to the Americans at all.’
Time is on the Iranians’ side.
Who has to cut a deal here quickly?
I think it’s Trump.
He’s seeing his favorability ratings go down by the day.
That’s going to increase, the longer the oil crunch happens, and as inflation spreads through the whole economy. They can wait this out.
Trump is the guy who needs a settlement soon.”