Below is a graphic from the South African newspaper Die Burger (‘The Citizen’) that shows the recent increase in the price of diesel in major countries around the world.
Look at Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India sitting pretty on 0%.
Each other country’s situation is different.
In South Africa gas prices are adjusted only once per month, and then stays at that price for the entire month.
Diesel prices are not as regulated, but have not immediately skyrocketed because of secured inventory, regulated price lags, and the state-controlled fuel levy structure. The current price reflects a significant “under-recovery” (nearly R7 per liter in some projections) and suggests a massive, delayed price jump is imminent for April 2026.
This initial lack of increase is temporary.
I asked Google AI about the impact of a 30% gas price increase:
Q: What impact will an increase of 30% in the price of gas and the price of diesel for the next 6 months have on inflation in the United States?
A: A 30% increase in gas and diesel prices sustained over 6 months would significantly increase headline inflation in the short term while having a more delayed, indirect effect on core inflation.
Summary of Projected Shifts (March 2026 Context)
Current headline inflation (as of early 2026) is approximately 2.4%.
A sustained energy shock of this magnitude could push headline CPI toward 3.5% to 6%, depending on the breadth of the pass-through to other goods.
Diesel prices in economies have increased worldwide since the start of the war in the Middle East.
Vertical axis: % INCREASE IN PRICE OF DIESEL FROM 23 FEB TO 16 MAR 2026
Horizontal axis: AVERAGE PRICE OF DIESEL FOR 1 LITRE ON 16 MAR (US$)