Thursday/ signs of a recession 📉

The GDP number for Q2 is out: -0.2%.
So technically, we’re in a recession (two quarters of negative GDP), but per the New York Times: declaring a recession falls to a private, nonprofit research organization, the National Bureau of Economic Research. The group defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months,” and it bases its decisions on a variety of indicators — usually only months after the fact.

Some economists dismissed the Q1 number as a ‘quirk’ or a blip, but the negative Q2 number is harder to dismiss. Inflation is still running very high, and the economy has definitely slowed down. The higher interest rates (Fed funds rate now 2.25-2.5%) has cooled down the housing market. Unemployment is still sitting at 3.6%, though, and it is unheard of to be in a recession with such a low unemployment number.

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