Monday/ buy bonds? 📜

The MSCI USA Index is a stock market index that measures the performance of large- and mid-cap companies in the U.S.
It was down by 19.46% in 2022, but up more than 20% in each of the previous three years.

It was a rough week in the US stock market last week, and today went better.
Still, the uncertainty around inflation and a recession in 2023 is not going to be resolved for several more months.

Writes James McIntosh for the Wall Street Journal under a heading ‘Markets History 101: It’s Time to Buy Bonds‘:
Even after their big falls, stocks still look very expensive compared to bonds. The optimism that started this year has faded, but investors continue to bet that long-run inflation will come back under control and profit margins will stay high. And many remain wary of bonds, even as yields approach 4% on the 10-year Treasury and are above 5% on six-month bills.

The central lesson of financial history is that, over the long run, U.S. stocks beat bonds. But buying stocks when they are expensive—at 18 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months, they have rarely been pricier outside the dot-com bubble and the post-pandemic boom—is a recipe for substandard returns.

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