Tuesday/ the voice of reason

Dr Fauci testified before Congress today, via videolink. He urged caution (as always), and said there would be no vaccine by the start of the school year in September.

Just today California State University, the nation’s largest four-year public university system, announced the cancellation of in-person classes for the fall semester. That system comprises 23 campuses, with more than 480,000 students!

Dr Anthony S. Fauci (79) is a physician and immunologist who has served as the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. He has lived through the start of the terrible HIV/ AIDS pandemic (first cases in 1981, and not over by a long shot: 770,000 deaths world-wide in 2018), the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 2009 Swine Flu, the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and now Covid-19. It was refreshing to see him testify without Trump (literally) breathing down his neck at Coronavirus Task Force briefings.

Thursday/ the ‘magic’ in South Korea

‘So no, the Koreans are not ‘magic’, and are not dealing with a loaded deck. They saw the problem, and confronted it rationally and deliberately, and the U.S. can certainly do the same, once rational people rise up and start removing their irrational leaders‘, concludes Kelly Mac in an article on Medium.

The writer dispels some of the myths around the amazing success that South Korea has had at mitigating the impact of the corona virus. (They worked hard at it, and it should also be noted that they operate at ‘half-normal’, says the writer).

Screen shots below are from the Medium article.
Korean tracing app: It has GPS permissions, phone number verification, and Passport number (verified in person by immigration)- the traveler can delete after 2 weeks. If you fail to self-report during the 2 weeks, a health official may call you to find out why; the QR code can be used for fast entry to hospitals. (Dyspnea means difficult or labored breathing).

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday/ ‘a doleful future’ .. but also optimism

An article in the New York Times by Donald G. McNeil Jr. paints a bleak picture, ‘a doleful future’, for the year or two ahead, for life in the times of the SARS-CoV-2 (corona) virus.

Yes, we have reached the peak of this first outbreak in New York City, and several other States, but right now we should test at least three times more people daily, to assess if a community is safe enough for people to come out of their homes. There are still not enough test kits available. (Trump and Pence seem to lie about this every day at the press briefings).

The experts agree that 12 to 18 months for a vaccine is optimistic. The ‘world record’ time for developing a vaccine, was for the one for mumps (4 years, start to finish in 1967). Check out the struggle for the polio vaccine before the success of Dr. Jonas Salk in 1955.

Once we have a vaccine, we will need 300 million doses — and 600 million if two shots are needed. We will probably have to rely on China to help manufacture those!

In the interim, it will be impossible to keep paying the economic cost of keeping people at home. There will be fits and starts, as the lockdowns get lifted, and reinstituted if too many people fall ill in certain communities. People that have become immune, may get special privileges (to work, to travel), and people that are not immune, may be discriminated against.

The article does end with an optimistic note:
‘In the periods after both wars, Dr. Mulder* noted, society and incomes became more equal. Funds created for veterans’ and widows’ pensions led to social safety nets, measures like the G.I. Bill and V.A. home loans were adopted, unions grew stronger, and tax benefits for the wealthy withered.

If a vaccine saves lives, many Americans may become less suspicious of conventional medicine and more accepting of science in general — including climate change, experts said.

The blue skies that have shone above American cities during this lockdown era could even become permanent’.

*Nicholas Mulder, an economic historian at Cornell University.

This looks like a scene from a dystopian future, a movie, but no, it’s real: a handful of commuters on the Staten Island Ferry. Passenger counts on the New York City subway is down by 93%. [Picture: Misha Friedman for The New York Times]

Sunday/ this party is OVER

This is somewhere in Amsterdam on Sunday — a picture posted on Twitter by Maria@kalltvatten.
She points out in her tweet that she was the not the one that reported the rooftop party. She also noted that the police are at the right door (the rooftop is accessed from the building on the left).

Monday/ death toll approaches 11,000

‘But we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We have 15 people [sick] in this massive country, and because of the fact that we went early. We went early; we could have had a lot more than that. We’re doing great. Our country is doing so great. We are so unified. We are so unified. The Republican Party has never ever been unified like it is now. There has never been a movement in the history of our country like we have now. Never been a movement’.
– trump, at a rally in South Carolina, Feb 28


By late Monday night the number of deaths in the United States from the coronavirus approached 11,000. This number of reported deaths has doubled every 3 or 4 days since mid-March. At this rate, the 100,000 mark will be reached by the end of April.

There are signs in New York City that the peak of the epidemic there has been reached, though. Some models now predict a lower number than the estimated range of 100k- 240k total deaths in the USA by August range (80k or so).

From today’s New York Times: ‘The United States on Monday crossed the threshold of 10,000 deaths from the coronavirus. The first 5,000 deaths came in just over a month’s time, and in fewer than five days, the second 5,000 followed’.

Friday/ cover your face (in enclosed public spaces)

The CDC and the White House Coronavirus Task Force today said to cover one’s face with a cloth mask when going into a store or an enclosed public space.

As someone on Twitter noted: how come masks are required for healthcare workers, but wearing nothing at all was recommended for the public, when they can come into close contact with other people .. even as they try to avoid them, and given that persons might be asymptomatic but still contagious? It never made sense.

A doctor on TV pointed out that wearing any kind of mask sends an important signal to others: something is seriously amiss (aka: a P-A-N-D-E-M-I-C). So everyone in public should avoid close contact, and not spread germs (and viruses). It also reminds the wearer not to touch his or her face.

Monday/ the ‘wabbits’ are under quarantine

I ran out to the grocery store again on Saturday.
Hopefully, the time will come again in the foreseeable future, when I would not have to dodge the other shoppers, nor be in a rush, so as to minimize my time in the ‘dangerous’ public space of the store.

My two Easter bunnies from Lindt still have a day or so to go before they are done with their 72 hour quarantine .. but I will probably wash the foil wrappers with soap anyway, before I tear it open.

Thursday/ tracking the pandemic’s toll

The Financial Times publish these graphs of Covid-19 fatalities every day, here.

This graph shows that deaths in Italy, Spain and the United States are still increasing at a more rapid pace than they had in China, at a similar time (number of days after the 10th death in the country).

 

This graph shows that the New York State, the Catalonia region and the Madrid metro, could eventually pass Lombardia, Italy, as the worst affected subregion. Washington State and California seems to be doing relatively better than New York State. The higher rate in New York State could be related to the very dense population in NYC, and the heavy use of crowded public transportation there.

Wednesday/ what’s in, and what’s out?

You don’t make the timeline. The virus makes the timeline.
So you’ve got to respond in what you see happen.
And if you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn’t matter what you say.
1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks – you’ve got to go with what the situation on the ground is.
– Dr. Anthony Fauci, member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force


Below is a handy infographic from the Seattle Times, that shows what is allowed, and what is not, under the governor’s Stay-At-Home directive.

For the extra-careful (paranoid*?), there are YouTube videos that advise to wash or sterilize the outsides of packaged groceries, or to carefully dump out food from take-out containers onto clean dinner plates.  Packages from Amazon or elsewhere, should be quarantined for 24 or 48 hours. Wear gloves when going into a store, to minimize direct touch with shopping carts & screens, and so on.

*The late Andy Grove from PC processor manufacturer Intel Corp., wrote a business book titled ‘Only The Paranoid Survive’.

Friday/ sheltering in place

It has been beautiful outside this week, so I went for a few walks around the block a few times — but definitely avoiding people on the sidewalk. Yes, I’m steering clear of you. Don’t care if you are offended .. it’s good for both of us.

I find going to the grocery store harrowing*, and maybe I will get supplies for a whole month with my next trip.
Of course: I can always order from Amazon or even online, from the grocery store, as well.

*The last time I went, there was a woman with a persistent, bad cough in the store. So you absolutely had to come into the store? I thought.

It’s early days, but the number of positive tests on this dashboard from the University of Washington, looks promising. (The number of positive cases is stable and not increasing rapidly).

Friday/ the United States is in a National Emergency

Gov. Jay Inslee expanded school closures and prohibited large gatherings across all of Washington State on Friday, in an effort to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. Health officials reported at least five new deaths, and more than 560 people have now tested positive.
– Associated Press


Where coronavirus cases have been reported (official count: 2,100 with sparse testing). More than a handful of experts put the number of infected Americans already, as an estimated number, in the hundreds of thousands. [Graphic by the New York Times].
This is a scary graph. There is no sign whatsoever, that the ‘curve is flattening’ (the number of new cases reported every day, still increases at an exponential rate).

Trump finally announced today — some 30 minutes before Wall Street closed for the week— that he declares a National Emergency* over the coronavirus.  He shook hands with at least three Fortune 500 executives (a bad example in the time of coronavirus), and proceeded to exchange barbs with the press. ‘Such a nasty question’ he said, without answering, when asked why he disbanded the pandemic response team when he took office.

Panic buying erupted on Wall Street, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other indexes up almost 10%.

Okaayy .. but there is going to be a recession. How can there not be? The world is grinding to a halt. The three largest cruise ship lines have announced a suspension in cruising for 30 days. Delta Airlines says the drop-off in business is worse than after 9/11. If any number of states is like Washington State or the State of New York, the national economic impact will be significant.

*The Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act of 1987 is activated. When the Stafford Act is activated to deal with a pandemic, the federal government can begin providing direct emergency medical care to citizens throughout the country. This could include the establishment of temporary hospitals, for example, to ease the nation’s projected shortage of intensive care beds. The government could also use the act to provide food, water, medicine and other supplies to Americans. [Source: USA Today].

Tuesday/ numbers that grow exponentially

‘If you do the math, it gets very disturbing’, said Inslee. ‘In 7 to 8 weeks, there could be 64,000 people infected in the State of Washington if we don’t somehow slow down this epidemic. And the next week, it’s 120,000 — and the next week, it’d be a quarter of a million’.
– Washington State Governor Jay Inslee, Tue. Mar 10, 2020.


Washington State Governor Jay Inslee will announce tomorrow that all gatherings of more than 250 people, are banned in the Seattle metro area. The current coronavirus numbers may seem small: a total of 267 infections in Washington State (24 deaths).

The trouble is —
1. the real number might be a lot bigger, and
2. if left unchecked, infected persons can each infect between 2 and 3 others, making for exponential growth in the number of infections.

Check out the graph below: my own rough calculation starting with the 267, and repeatedly multiplying by 2.5 each week.  We know know that an infected person will typically start to show symptoms some 5-6 days after exposure.

For this graph I assumed a starting number of 267, and that the number grows by 2.5x every week. It shows that 267 becomes 670 after a week, then 1,700. It takes a shockingly short time to get to 10,000 from there, and then only 3 weeks to 100,000+.

Thursday/ empty places, around the world

Here’s a remarkable set of ‘Before’ & ‘After’ satellite photos, published by the New York Times.
It shows how public places around the world have emptied out because of the arrival of the coronavirus.

Monday/ fist bump – no handshake, nor high-five

In doubles tennis, it has become standard practice for the partners to high-five and low-five between points, all done to promote team spirit.

Well, with the coronavirus going around here in Washington State*, we decided at our regular social tennis on Sunday, that we will go with fist bumps instead.

*The count is 14 cases so far, of which 6 had turned fatal. The local Costco store was swamped this weekend with shoppers, stocking up on basic food supplies and other necessities. (People! Keep calm and carry on).

June 3, 2008, after the Montana and South Dakota primaries: candidate Barack Obama had secured enough delegates to clinch the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States. This playful fist bump with wife Michelle, was right before he delivered his victory speech in St Paul, Minnesota that night. (Photo: Dunand/AP)
P.S. Super Tuesday is here. Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer had all suspended their campaigns by Monday night. Joe Biden emerged out of the South Carolina primary on Saturday as the main challenger to Bernie Sanders. Mike Bloomberg is the ‘X’ factor, and is looking to draw enough votes on Tuesday to prove him a viable candidate in the race.

Tuesday/ on coronavirus watch

‘Have you visited China in the last three months?‘ inquired the check-in person at the doctor’s office of me, yesterday.  ‘No, I have not’, said I, not sure what they would have done if I answered that I had been.

They need to add many more countries to that question, soon. Even the 2020 Summer Olympics is now said to hang in the balance, and it may be canceled altogether if the spread of the COVID-19 virus is not under control by May.

China still has the vast, vast majority of confirmed corona cases (77, 658), but the list of countries with confirmed cases is growing: USA 53, Canada 10, UK 13, Spain 2, France 12, Belgium 1, Austria 2, Croatia 1, Italy 229, Sweden 1, Finland 1, Russia 2, Egypt 1, Iraq 5, Iran 95, Afghanistan 1, Oman 2, Egypt 1, United Arab Emirates 13, India 3, Sri Lanka 1, Thailand 35, Vietnam 16, Malaysia 22, Australia 23, South Korea 977, Japan 159. [Source: www.aljazeera.com].
Here’s Fake President Trump, upset only because the coronavirus makes him look bad (nevermind that people are suffering and dying). His administration dismantled protocols and federal agencies for coordinated responses to outbreaks (that Obama put together for the ebola virus), and so now they are foundering in their response to the virus, and lying about it.  

Friday/ wash your hands, frequently

Wow .. the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is making a lot of trouble in mainland China, and especially in Hubei province. The whistleblower doctor that sounded the alarm originally, Li Wenliang, has passed away in Wuhan. He was only 34.

The local authorities in Wuhan have bumped up the number of new makeshift hospital beds from 26,000 to 36,000. More people have also tested positive in that cruise ship under quarantine in Yokohama, Japan. There is a severe shortage of facemasks in China (the cheap ones are not very effective, but I guess it gives the wearer a psychological boost).

So far – outside of China – the spread of the virus seems to be contained, though. Even so, courtesy of the Port of Seattle website .. 

  • Wash your hands frequently, cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash and wash your hands.
  • Avoid contact with people who are sick, and stay home when sick.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands.
  • Avoid non-essential travel to China.
  • Check-in with your airline if you have questions about your travel itinerary.
  • While not protective against the coronavirus, it’s not too late to get an influenza vaccine, since flu season can last into spring.
Guidelines from the CDC from Americans coming home from China (14 days of self quarantine). Non-citizens will be quarantined for 14 days. Seattle-Tacoma airport has identified a site (a firefighter training center in North Bend, far from any neighborhoods) for asymptomatic foreigners that might still arrive from China. The travel industry and hospitality industry along with all economic activity in China is taking a serious hit from the virus.

Monday/ got my flu shot!

I was at the pharmacy today, and the pharmacist said ‘just so you know’, that they already have a shipment of the 2019/ 20 flu shots. ‘Let’s do it!’ I said, and got my flu shot right there and then.

It was a quadrivalent shot: a vaccine for four strains of the flu virus — for what it’s worth. I read online that the 2018/ 19 season’s flu shot was only about 30% effective. There was a late-surging strain, against which it was no help at all.

Missing the mark: cartoon by Dave Granlund, published during the 2014/ 15 season when the vaccine was even less than 30% effective.  P.S. I would say it’s not really the lab that misses the mark — it’s the panel of experts that try to predict which strains of the flu virus will circulate around the regions of the world for the upcoming flu season.

Wednesday/ ditching the whitening

I read once that Americans have somewhat of an obsession with super white teeth – so that must be why so many toothpastes are ‘whitening’ or ‘extra whitening’.

Well, says my dentist:
1. if you are using toothpaste for sensitive teeth, whitening ingredients detract from the effect of the potassium nitrate (which helps with tooth sensitivity); and
2. the amount of whitening actually achieved with toothpaste is minimal.
So I’m ditching my Sensodyne Extra Whitening toothpaste, and will go with one that only has the potassium nitrate.

I got this toothpaste sample from my dentist, and I like it, but I have not been able to find it in a store yet. I guess I could order it online from You-Know-Who, but I will try another store or two first. The dentist says to smear a little toothpaste over the tooth and gums where the heat & cold sensitivity is, before brushing, to amplify the effect of the potassium nitrate.

Thursday/ my new mattress

The iSeries® Hybrid 500 Cushion Firm mattress with one of Serta’s googly-eyed sheep, used in the marketing of their mattresses. I suppose one would do well to fall asleep by counting only to sheep No 29! .. but even though counting sheep to doze off is popular in cartoons and folklore, it is not really used in real life as an aid to fall asleep.

I bought a new mattress on Wednesday, and it was delivered today.
It was high time to get a new one, even factoring in all the nights I did not sleep in my own bed over the years (but in a hotel while traveling for work).

My new sleeping pad is a fancy Serta hybrid mattress: layers of memory foam on a base of coiled springs.  It is a little firmer than medium*, and I did try it out in the store before I bought it.

*My hotel room in Rotterdam during my recent stay there, had a soft mattress, and it felt as if I was trapped in quicksand.