In three short weeks, the Omicron variant has displaced the Delta variant.
The first case of Omicron in the Unites States was reported on Dec. 1.
GET VACCINATED. GET A BOOSTER SHOT. WEAR YOUR MASK.
Monday/ the end is not yet in sight
This pandemic will end some time. We just don’t know when, yet.
GET VACCINATED. GET A BOOSTER SHOT. WEAR YOUR MASK.
Wednesday/ no check for proof of vaccination
Bryan, Gary and I made our way down to The Chieftain for a beer and a bite tonight.
Caturday
These pictures are from the Twitter account of Pyonta the feline (ピョンタ・フロスキー@pyonta_F on Twitter).
From what I gleaned from translating the Japanese, his owner was a little boy when he picked up the bedraggled fur ball near the Arakawa river, north of Tokyo, Japan.
That was 10 years ago, and look at them now.
Friday/ here, there, everywhere
It has only been 8 days the announcement of the Omicron variant, but it’s clear that it has probably been spreading for several weeks (months?) around the world already.
Black Friday/ B.1.1.529
Hopefully it turns out that Black Friday meant the purveyors of products-at-a-discount ended up in the black, and not that the B.1.1.529 variant (Omicron) had started a really bad turn in the pandemic. (We will know in about two weeks if this ‘variant of concern’ can evade the antibodies produced by the current vaccines*).
Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of the South African Medical Association, says in The Guardian newspaper: ‘It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild’.
*From the New York Times: The B.1.1.529 variant has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” with more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, Mr. de Oliveira (director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, in South Africa) said. The spike protein is the chief target of antibodies that the immune system produces to fight a coronavirus infection. So many mutations raised concerns that Omicron’s spike might be able to evade antibodies produced by either a previous infection or a vaccine.
Monday/ Europe’s spike
Several countries in Europe are in bad shape, in the grip of another spike of infections. Austria has started a 10-day national lockdown, which could be extended to 20.
A national vaccination rate of 60% —or even 70% —is just not cutting it. Too many people still refuse to get vaccinated. As someone noted wryly, many countries may have reached herd immunity: immunity from the truth.
Wednesday/ monitoring the pandemic
We still have 60 million unvaccinated Americans that qualify for the vaccine, which is free, and widely available.
The 7-day average for the number of new Covid-19 cases is 87,000 (16% up in one week). Dr. Fauci said today that it needs to be well under 10,000 per day, before one can declare that the pandemic is under control in the United States. Asked when that would be, he said it’s impossible to know.
Cases gave gone up in 12 states the last two weeks. (Washington State is one of them. Seattle and King County is doing better than most other counties in the state).
Tuesday/ the third shot
It’s been six months since I had my second shot, and so today it was time for the third one*. The pharmacist put a Spiderman band-aid on my arm afterwards. They must be gearing up for the influx of 5-11 year-olds that will come in for their shots from tomorrow.
*Pfizer’s booster shot is the same dosage strength as their primary series. Moderna’s booster dose is half the strength of its primary shots.
Sunday/ the deadline is here
Rolovich*: “I don’t think this is in my hands. I’ve been settled for a long time on it. I believe it’s going to work out the right way.”
Reporter: “Right way, as in staying the coach?”
Rolovich: “Correct. Or, if that’s not what (athletics director Pat Chun) wants, then, you know, then I guess I gotta move on. But I like being here, I like being the coach here, I love these kids, and I just got faith in it.”
*Nick Rolovich, head coach of the Washington State Cougars football team, and Washington State’s highest-paid employee at $3 million per year. The governor of Washington State earns a paltry $172,000 by comparison, per Ballotpedia.
The deadline is here: Washington State employees must be vaccinated come tomorrow, or get fired (or just risk getting fired? time will tell). The mandate includes employees at the Capitol in Olympia, firefighters, policemen, state troopers, and Washington State Cougars football team head coach Nick Rolovich.
Rolovich is reportedly seeking a religious exemption. If the school’s review panel — through its double-blind review procedure that is out of the hands of the athletics department — determines he does not have “sincerely held religious belief” preventing him from getting vaccinated, then he will be out of a job, and WSU will be off the hook for the remainder of his contract, says the CougCenter website.
The report also notes that even if his exemption is approved, the school must also determine if he can be accommodated. (He will have to do his job with social distancing, testing, and wearing a mask at all times, and so on). Given that the governor’s mandate is a public safety measure, it’s reasonable to infer that the safety of others — employees and the public at large, will factor into WSU’s thinking.
Thursday/ 4 months, and counting
I listened to a podcast of Andy Slavitt (former Biden White House Sr Advisor for COVID Response) today, and it’s clear to me what to do now.
I need to march into a CVS store (or any other, or a clinic) by November, and get a booster shot.
It appears that the protection afforded by full vaccinations, wanes by about 6% per month.
There is no apparent downside for adults getting a booster shot.
So if it’s OK for 65+ people, and for workers (of any age) at high risk, it is surely also OK for me to get.
As Dr Agus put it: striving for perfection is our enemy here. Why try to get it perfectly right (re: timing and shot combinations), and come down with Covid in the meantime?
Monday/ to boost or not to boost
Weeks ago, the administration decided that the public needs cake and deserves cake, and so shall have cake.
Now, the public expects cake and would be very annoyed if its cake was taken away at this point.
– John P. Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine
It looks like the White House had gotten out over its skis, by promising that everyone over 16 will be able to get booster shots.
Last Friday, a panel of experts recommended against booster shots for the broad public. Only people over 65, and those ‘at high risk’ qualify (compromised immune systems, workers such as hospital staff, teachers).
Did they have all the latest information, though? Here’s Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland writing for the New York Times (about the discussion on Friday Sept. 17 by the panel of experts that advise the FDA):
One study apparently came too late for the discussion, underscoring the rapid flurry of changing data on vaccine potency. Released by the C.D.C. hours before the committee’s vote, it found that the Pfizer vaccine’s level of protection against coronavirus hospitalizations dropped significantly four months after the second shot.
The study found that two weeks to four months after recipients got their second dose, the Pfizer vaccine was 91 percent effective in preventing hospitalization. After 120 days, though, its effectiveness fell to 77 percent. Moderna’s vaccine showed no comparable decrease in protection over the same time frame. The vaccinated patients in the study tended to be older; the Pfizer cohort had a median age of 68.
Thursday/ required: proof of vaccination
Health officials here in King County are clearly worried that the pandemic will get even worse, now that summer is over.
Beginning Oct. 25, customers will have to show proof of vaccination— or a negative COVID test— at most establishments and events here in King County.
It’s not clear at this point, if any smartphone apps* will be available to help with the process, or if businesses will get any help or compensation for enforcing the rules.
*I registered months ago for the MyIR (My Immunization Record) Mobile app, but it still says the link to the State Health Department is not in place.
Thursday/ ‘Our Patience Is Wearing Thin’
This is not some new “dictatorial power” President Biden is assuming. This is how the government works. Wake up.
– Rachel Maddow @MaddowBlog on Twitter
Excerpts from reporting in the New York Times by By Katie Rogers and Sheryl Gay Stolberg:
President Biden announced sweeping actions today to vaccinate tens of millions of American workers against the coronavirus, including private-sector employees, health care workers and federal contractors.
Experts say Mr. Biden has the legal authority to impose vaccine requirements on the private sector, through laws that require businesses to comply with evidence-based federal health safety standards.
One thing Mr. Biden cannot do is require all Americans to be vaccinated; in the United States, vaccinations are the province of the states.
Wednesday/ what booster shots do
Here’s a graph tweeted by Prof Peter Hotez* MD PhD @PeterHotez that illustrates what booster shots do.
*Professor in Pediatrics Molecular Virology at Texas Children’s Hospital, vaccine scientist, author and committed to combating anti-science information.
Tuesday/ get your Comirnaty® before Covid drives you batty
The FDA approved Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine on Monday.
Will that move any anti-vaxxers to get their shots? Probably not, but more organizations big and small, public and private, will now mandate that their workers get vaccinated. For me, it’s nice to know the vaccine is officially A-OK.
Will Pfizer market Comirnaty on TV? I guess we shall see. It looks more and more likely that most of us will need booster shots by year’s end.
P.S. The US and New Zealand are the only two countries that allow full direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription drugs and vaccines. Pharma companies spent $5 billion on marketing in the US in 2016. (Sigh.)
Wednesday/ get vaccinated, or get fired
All teachers and school personnel in Washington State — including coaches, bus drivers and volunteers — will need to be fully vaccinated as a condition of employment, under a new policy announced by Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday. The requirement applies to staff regardless of the type of school in which they work: public, charter or private.
The policy is the strictest vaccine mandate imposed to date by any state for teachers and other staff members in schools, allowing for only a few exceptions. School staff must be vaccinated by Oct. 18 or face possible dismissal.
– Dana Goldstein reporting for the New York Times
Governor Inslee also announced a mask mandate for indoor public settings for the entire state of Washington.
Masks are ‘recommended’ for crowded outdoor settings.
Oh- and booster shots are coming, for everyone. It’s only 2021.
Friday/ ‘We are failing one another’ – really?
Look at all the red on this map of the USA. We are averaging more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day, for the first time since February.
If Florida and Louisiana were countries, they would have been No 1 and No 2 in the world for Covid prevalence.
Barely a month after Washington State ‘reopened’, King County is now again red, as well (threat level: High).
P.S. So now that my rant against the unvaccinated is out of the way, here is advice from Adam Grant (organizational psychologist) @AdamMGrant on Twitter, when talking to vaccine-hesitant people:
How not to talk about vaccines:
Only half the population is vaccinated, and anti-vaxxers are to blame. Vaccines are safe and effective.
A better option:
Over 160 million Americans are fully vaccinated. Yes, vaccines have risks, but COVID poses greater risk.
Wednesday/ comeback of the year
WA state will follow current CDC guidance and I am asking Washingtonians statewide to consider wearing a mask in public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission. This is a recommendation, not a requirement.
– Governor Jay Inslee @GovInslee on Twitter, today
I guess I’m putting my mask back on when I go into stores. (I confess that I was not wearing one tonight for our Wednesday night beers. The Chieftain pub was virtually empty, though).
The experts agree that we’re in for a rough few months here in the US, as the Delta variant of Covid-19 spreads among the unvaccinated (and also infects some vaccinated people as well).
I’m watching an interview that Bill Kristol is having with Dr. Ashish Jha (Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health). Dr. Jha explains that there is 1,000x more of the virus in the nose & throat of Delta variant patients vs. others. An infected person with the Delta variant infects on average 6-8 others (it used to be 3-4 others with the Alpha variant).
Monday/ the state of the virus
Here’s the ‘state of the virus’ in the US, summarized by the New York Times:
Case numbers are climbing across most of the country as the Delta variant spreads among unvaccinated people. Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Nevada are experiencing full-fledged outbreaks.
The country remains in far better shape than at almost all previous points of the pandemic. Deaths remain near their lowest levels since spring 2020, and hospitalizations are a fraction of their winter peak.
The vaccination campaign has largely stalled. About 550,000 shots are being administered each day, down from more than 3.3 million at the peak.
The change over the last 14 days: 7-day average of cases is up 3-fold, daily deaths up 75%.
Of these deaths, 99% of the sick were unvaccinated.
[Graphic by the New York Times]