Monday/ Omicron now rules

In three short weeks, the Omicron variant has displaced the Delta variant.
The first case of Omicron in the Unites States was reported on Dec. 1.
GET VACCINATED. GET A BOOSTER SHOT. WEAR YOUR MASK.

The purple piece of the pie in each of the ten regions in the United States shows the proportion of specimens that were Omicron: variant B.1.1.529. This is for specimens that had been collected during the week that had ended on Friday Dec. 18. 
It averages out at 73% for the whole of the country. 
[Infographic from the CDC’s Covid-19 web page]

Monday/ the end is not yet in sight

This pandemic will end some time. We just don’t know when, yet.
GET VACCINATED. GET A BOOSTER SHOT. WEAR YOUR MASK.

NBC Nightly News reported tonight that the count of COVID-19 deaths in the USA had crossed 800,000. The numbers compiled by the New York Times is close to that. Some 1,200 people perish every single day. 75% are older than 65. In this cohort, only heart disease and cancer kill more people than COVID-19. The unsettling thing is that the pace of deaths has increased by a lot since summer.

Wednesday/ no check for proof of vaccination

Bryan, Gary and I made our way down to The Chieftain for a beer and a bite tonight.

There’s no one at the door to check for masks & proof of vaccination, and it was not done at the table, either. At this point, all bars and restaurants in King County with inside seating— no matter how small — must check for proof of vaccination. We let it slide .. the waiter wore a mask, and the tables are very far apart. King County is 75% fully vaccinated per the New York Times.
Many other counties in Washington State lag far behind, with numbers like 65% (Snohomish), 59% (Pierce), 57% (Yakima), 51% (Kittitas).  

Caturday

These pictures are from the Twitter account of Pyonta the feline (ピョンタ・フロスキー@pyonta_F on Twitter).
From what I gleaned from translating the Japanese, his owner was a little boy when he picked up the bedraggled fur ball near the Arakawa river, north of Tokyo, Japan.
That was 10 years ago, and look at them now.

Friday/ here, there, everywhere

It has only been 8 days the announcement of the Omicron variant, but it’s clear that it has probably been spreading for several weeks (months?) around the world already.

No cases discovered yet in Washington State. The first case detected in the USA was a traveler from South Africa that had returned to San Francisco. There are several other cases in the USA through community transmission, though (persons that have not traveled outside of their state or even their county).
Update Sat 12/4: Public health officials have confirmed 3 cases of the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus in Washington state.
[Map from the New York Times online]
And here are the countries that have reported cases of the Omicron variant. Almost all (99%) of cases in the USA are still the Delta variant, but that is expected to change. Many, many communities in the States still sit at 60% vaccinated, which is not good enough. There is evidence that the Omicron variant can reinfect people that had a previous Covid-19 infection, and no vaccination.
[Map from the New York Times online]

Black Friday/ B.1.1.529

Hopefully it turns out that Black Friday meant the purveyors of products-at-a-discount ended up in the black, and not that the B.1.1.529 variant (Omicron) had started a really bad turn in the pandemic. (We will know in about two weeks if this ‘variant of concern’ can evade the antibodies produced by the current vaccines*).

Angelique Coetzee, chairperson of the South African Medical Association, says in The Guardian newspaper: ‘It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild’.

*From the New York Times: The B.1.1.529 variant has a “very unusual constellation of mutations,” with more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, Mr. de Oliveira (director of the KwaZulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, in South Africa) said. The spike protein is the chief target of antibodies that the immune system produces to fight a coronavirus infection. So many mutations raised concerns that Omicron’s spike might be able to evade antibodies produced by either a previous infection or a vaccine.

Passengers travelling from South Africa line up to be tested for Covid-19, tested after being held on the tarmac at Schiphol Airport, Netherlands for hours on November 26, 2021. About 600 passengers arrived on Friday on two KLM flights. After initial testing, Dutch authorities estimated that some 85 people may be infected. Those that test positive will have to quarantine in hotels near the airport, and their samples will be tested to see if it’s the omicron variant.
Update Sat 11/27: Per the BBC, 61 of these 600 travelers tested positive for Covid-19. (Not yet known if any is the Omicron variant). 61 sounds like a lot to me. Surely almost all of these travelers have been vaccinated. Was the testing (in South Africa) three days before traveling not very reliable? Did the travelers get infected on the airplane? 
[Picture obtained from social media by REUTERS]

Monday/ Europe’s spike

Several countries in Europe are in bad shape, in the grip of another spike of infections. Austria has started a 10-day national lockdown, which could be extended to 20.

A national vaccination rate of 60% —or even 70% —is just not cutting it. Too many people still refuse to get vaccinated. As someone noted wryly, many countries may have reached herd immunity: immunity from the truth.

‘Large Parts of Europe in Midst of New Wave of Infections’.
Wow. The map shows the number of positive Covid-19 tests per 100,000 residents, per country. More than 500 new infections per 100,000 residents in one week, is not a number that I recall seeing that any state here in the USA came close to, not even at the peak of the previous wave. (The bar graph below shows patients in intensive care per million residents). 
[Infographic from Dutch publication NRC Handelsblad]

Wednesday/ monitoring the pandemic

We still have 60 million unvaccinated Americans that qualify for the vaccine, which is free, and widely available.

The 7-day average for the number of new Covid-19 cases is 87,000 (16% up in one week). Dr. Fauci said today that it needs to be well under 10,000 per day, before one can declare that the pandemic is under control in the United States. Asked when that would be, he said it’s impossible to know.

Cases gave gone up in 12 states the last two weeks. (Washington State is one of them. Seattle and King County is doing better than most other counties in the state).

Infographic from the Washington Post. Yes, cases have come down from that latest peak, but have now stalled at a high plateau. I would not have thought that we would still have 1,100 deaths every day, at this point in the pandemic.

 

Tuesday/ the third shot

It’s been six months since I had my second shot, and so today it was time for the third one*. The pharmacist put a Spiderman band-aid on my arm afterwards. They must be gearing up for the influx of 5-11 year-olds that will come in for their shots from tomorrow.

*Pfizer’s booster shot is the same dosage strength as their primary series. Moderna’s booster dose is half the strength of its primary shots.

Big Pharma: “The third dose is recommended for people with certain preconditions”
African person: “Which preconditions?” (Sign says ‘Africa needs vaccines’)
Big Pharma: “Wealth”
[Cartoon by Swiss cartoonist Patrick Chappatte]

Sunday/ the deadline is here

Rolovich*: “I don’t think this is in my hands. I’ve been settled for a long time on it. I believe it’s going to work out the right way.”
Reporter: “Right way, as in staying the coach?”
Rolovich: “Correct. Or, if that’s not what (athletics director Pat Chun) wants, then, you know, then I guess I gotta move on. But I like being here, I like being the coach here, I love these kids, and I just got faith in it.”
*Nick Rolovich, head coach of the Washington State Cougars football team, and Washington State’s highest-paid employee at $3 million per year. The governor of Washington State earns a paltry $172,000 by comparison, per Ballotpedia.


The deadline is here: Washington State employees must be vaccinated come tomorrow, or get fired (or just risk getting fired? time will tell). The mandate includes employees at the Capitol in Olympia, firefighters, policemen, state troopers, and Washington State Cougars football team head coach Nick Rolovich.

Rolovich is reportedly seeking a religious exemption. If the school’s review panel — through its double-blind review procedure that is out of the hands of the athletics department — determines he does not have “sincerely held religious belief” preventing him from getting vaccinated, then he will be out of a job, and WSU will be off the hook for the remainder of his contract, says the CougCenter website.

The report also notes that even if his exemption is approved, the school must also determine if he can be accommodated. (He will have to do his job with social distancing, testing, and wearing a mask at all times, and so on). Given that the governor’s mandate is a public safety measure, it’s reasonable to infer that the safety of others — employees and the public at large, will factor into WSU’s thinking.

Photo and reporting that I referred to, from the CougCenter website. Washington State University is located in Pullman, Washington.

Thursday/ 4 months, and counting

Andy Slavitt’s podcast with Dr. David Agus and Tom Moriarty of CVS Health.

I listened to a podcast of Andy Slavitt (former Biden White House Sr Advisor for COVID Response) today, and it’s clear to me what to do now.

I need to march into a CVS store (or any other, or a clinic) by November, and get a booster shot.

It appears that the protection afforded by full vaccinations, wanes by about 6% per month.

There is no apparent downside for adults getting a booster shot.
So if it’s OK for 65+ people, and for workers (of any age) at high risk, it is surely also OK for me to get.

As Dr Agus put it: striving for perfection is our enemy here. Why try to get it perfectly right (re: timing and shot combinations), and come down with Covid in the meantime?

On Sept. 19, I had been fully vaccinated for 4 months. By the time that 6 months will have gone by for me (Nov. 19), it would be time for a booster shot.
The recommendation from the podcast is to try to get the same shot as the 1st & 2nd dose shots (Pfizer 1,2 + Pfizer 3 OR Moderna 1,2 + Moderna 3).
If that’s not possible any other combination is OK as well:  J&J 1 + Pfizer 2 OR J&J 1+ Moderna 2 OR Pfizer 1,2 + Moderna 3  OR Moderna 1,2 + Pfizer 3.

Monday/ to boost or not to boost

Weeks ago, the administration decided that the public needs cake and deserves cake, and so shall have cake.
Now, the public expects cake and would be very annoyed if its cake was taken away at this point.
– John P. Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine


I want my cake, and eat it, too. I have had two shots of the Pfizer vaccine, and I think I want a third one!
[Photo of Blackout Cake by Alex Lau, food styling by Judy Mancini]
It looks like the White House had gotten out over its skis, by promising that everyone over 16 will be able to get booster shots.

Last Friday, a panel of experts recommended against booster shots for the broad public. Only people over 65, and those ‘at high risk’ qualify (compromised immune systems, workers such as hospital staff, teachers).

Did they have all the latest information, though? Here’s Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland writing for the New York Times (about the discussion on Friday Sept. 17 by the panel of experts that advise the FDA):
One study apparently came too late for the discussion, underscoring the rapid flurry of changing data on vaccine potency. Released by the C.D.C. hours before the committee’s vote, it found that the Pfizer vaccine’s level of protection against coronavirus hospitalizations dropped significantly four months after the second shot.

The study found that two weeks to four months after recipients got their second dose, the Pfizer vaccine was 91 percent effective in preventing hospitalization. After 120 days, though, its effectiveness fell to 77 percent. Moderna’s vaccine showed no comparable decrease in protection over the same time frame. The vaccinated patients in the study tended to be older; the Pfizer cohort had a median age of 68.

Thursday/ required: proof of vaccination

Health officials here in King County are clearly worried that the pandemic will get even worse, now that summer is over.

Beginning Oct. 25, customers will have to show proof of vaccination— or a negative COVID test— at most establishments and events here in King County.

It’s not clear at this point, if any smartphone apps* will be available to help with the process, or if businesses will get any help or compensation for enforcing the rules.
*I registered months ago for the MyIR (My Immunization Record) Mobile app, but it still says the link to the State Health Department is not in place.

Thursday/ ‘Our Patience Is Wearing Thin’

This is not some new “dictatorial power” President Biden is assuming. This is how the government works. Wake up.
– Rachel Maddow @MaddowBlog on Twitter


Excerpts from reporting in the New York Times by By Katie Rogers and Sheryl Gay Stolberg:
President Biden announced sweeping actions today to vaccinate tens of millions of American workers against the coronavirus, including private-sector employees, health care workers and federal contractors.
Experts say Mr. Biden has the legal authority to impose vaccine requirements on the private sector, through laws that require businesses to comply with evidence-based federal health safety standards.
One thing Mr. Biden cannot do is require all Americans to be vaccinated; in the United States, vaccinations are the province of the states.

‘Our Patience is Wearing Thin’. Well ⁠—my patience is worn out. Average deaths per day in the US is now back at 1,500. The virus keeps smoldering and mutating among the 80 million unvaccinated Americans that go about their daily business, and infecting other unvaccinated people (and a few vaccinated ones). 
[Front page of the print edition of the New York Times for Friday Sep 10].

Wednesday/ what booster shots do

Here’s a graph tweeted by Prof Peter Hotez* MD PhD @PeterHotez that illustrates what booster shots do. 

*Professor in Pediatrics Molecular Virology at Texas Children’s Hospital, vaccine scientist, author and committed to combating anti-science information.

A booster shot will induce a rapid and larger response (larger than the initial response) in the body, since the immune system is now primed and vigilant for what it sees as a ‘new infection’ of the virus.

Tuesday/ get your Comirnaty® before Covid drives you batty

The logo & name for Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine (say ‘co-MER-na-tee’).
The name is a portmanteau of letters and syllables:
CO = COVID-19 (which in turn stands for COronaVIrus Disease 2019, the year it was discovered);
MIRNA = mRNA, the snippets of genetic code that tell cells to build proteins (proteins similar to the COVID-19 spike proteins, so that antibodies are produced);
TY = a nod to the words ‘community’ and ‘immunity’.

The FDA approved Pfizer-BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine on Monday.
Will that move any anti-vaxxers to get their shots? Probably not, but more organizations big and small, public and private, will now mandate that their workers get vaccinated.  For me, it’s nice to know the vaccine is officially A-OK.

Will Pfizer market Comirnaty on TV? I guess we shall see. It looks more and more likely that most of us will need booster shots by year’s end.

P.S. The US and New Zealand are the only two countries that allow full direct-to-consumer advertising of prescription drugs and vaccines. Pharma companies spent $5 billion on marketing in the US in 2016. (Sigh.)

Wednesday/ get vaccinated, or get fired

All teachers and school personnel in Washington State — including coaches, bus drivers and volunteers — will need to be fully vaccinated as a condition of employment, under a new policy announced by Gov. Jay Inslee on Wednesday. The requirement applies to staff regardless of the type of school in which they work: public, charter or private.
The policy is the strictest vaccine mandate imposed to date by any state for teachers and other staff members in schools, allowing for only a few exceptions. School staff must be vaccinated by Oct. 18 or face possible dismissal.
– Dana Goldstein reporting for the New York Times


Governor Inslee also announced a mask mandate for indoor public settings for the entire state of Washington.
Masks are ‘recommended’ for crowded outdoor settings.

Oh- and booster shots are coming, for everyone. It’s only 2021.

Friday/ ‘We are failing one another’ – really?

Look at all the red on this map of the USA. We are averaging more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases a day, for the first time since February.
If Florida and Louisiana were countries, they would have been No 1 and No 2 in the world for Covid prevalence.

Barely a month after Washington State ‘reopened’, King County is now again red, as well (threat level: High).

I corrected/ clarified USA Today newspaper’s headline for them. I am vaccinated, and I wear my mask indoors in public spaces (again). Unvaccinated people are like drunk drivers. If you are unvaccinated, you should really stay home and not go anywhere. Sooner or later, you will get infected, and infect others: your family, your friends, co-workers, strangers. How hard is that to understand?

P.S. So now that my rant against the unvaccinated is out of the way, here is advice from Adam Grant (organizational psychologist) @AdamMGrant on Twitter, when talking to vaccine-hesitant people:
How not to talk about vaccines:
Only half the population is vaccinated, and anti-vaxxers are to blame. Vaccines are safe and effective.

A better option:
Over 160 million Americans are fully vaccinated. Yes, vaccines have risks, but COVID poses greater risk.

Wednesday/ comeback of the year

WA state will follow current CDC guidance and I am asking Washingtonians statewide to consider wearing a mask in public indoor settings in areas of substantial or high transmission. This is a recommendation, not a requirement.
– Governor Jay Inslee @GovInslee on Twitter, today


I guess I’m putting my mask back on when I go into stores. (I confess that I was not wearing one tonight for our Wednesday night beers. The Chieftain pub was virtually empty, though).

The experts agree that we’re in for a rough few months here in the US, as the Delta variant of Covid-19 spreads among the unvaccinated (and also infects some vaccinated people as well).

I’m watching an interview that Bill Kristol is having with Dr. Ashish Jha (Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health). Dr. Jha explains that there is 1,000x more of the virus in the nose & throat of Delta variant patients vs. others. An infected person with the Delta variant infects on average 6-8 others (it used to be 3-4 others with the Alpha variant).

GET VACCINATED. You are in for trouble if you are not vaccinated, and you encounter the Delta variant. Vaccinated people have an army of antibodies (and long-term T cells and B cells) that stop the virus from getting a foothold.  In some cases for vaccinated people, the viral load encountered is very high, though, and a breakthrough infection happens. Masks work by reducing the amount of virus that is inhaled from an infected person. [Cartoon by Dave Whamond on caglecartoons.com]

Monday/ the state of the virus

Cartoon by Steve Breen @sdutBreen on Twitter. Breen lives in Los Angeles and is a nationally syndicated cartoonist. He won the Pulitzer Prize for Editorial Cartooning twice, in 1998 and 2009.

Here’s the ‘state of the virus’ in the US, summarized by the New York Times:
Case numbers are climbing across most of the country as the Delta variant spreads among unvaccinated people. Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Nevada are experiencing full-fledged outbreaks.

The country remains in far better shape than at almost all previous points of the pandemic. Deaths remain near their lowest levels since spring 2020, and hospitalizations are a fraction of their winter peak.

The vaccination campaign has largely stalled. About 550,000 shots are being administered each day, down from more than 3.3 million at the peak.

The change over the last 14 days: 7-day average of cases is up 3-fold, daily deaths up 75%.
Of these deaths, 99% of the sick were unvaccinated.
[Graphic by the New York Times]